Are you just switching randomly through different growth sectors even though the currently invested ETF is still going strong?  This would increase commissions and costs.

Response: It’s a great question.

When everything is going up, a strategy that switches often and a strategy that stays in its investments for a longer time will perform about the same. The difference will be, as you correctly point out, that the strategy that switches often will incur more transaction costs.

The problem is that we do not know ahead of time what the future will bring. We do not know ahead of time whether, in the future, everything will be going up. So your criticism, while understandable, applies only when looking into the past, not into the future.

Since I do not know what the future holds, my strategy attempts to invest in what it calculates to be the “best” investment at the time. Even if “the market” as a whole starts declining, hopefully, the “best” investment will not decline, or will not decline by as much.

By the way, the recommendation from last week (Conservative: XOP/XLP; Balanced: VEA) was actually in force for two weeks straight.

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