Peaceful Gains Newsletters » Thrift Savings Plan

Bonds

Alex — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 20:07:36 +0000

Bonds (F Fund) remain the strongest of the TSP funds, though they have weakened since mid-August. Foreign stocks (I Fund) have taken off, but the jump might not be sustainable. Stay away from the other two stock funds. (follow: facebook, rss.)

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Back in bonds

Alex — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 02:13:01 +0000

With the fall in stocks, only bonds (F Fund) are trending up. In fact, their expected return has improved. On the other hand, small-cap stocks (S Fund), which we recommended last time, are doing very poorly. Stay away from all three stock funds. (follow: facebook, rss.)

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Strength in stocks

Alex — Sun, 01 Aug 2010 18:55:29 +0000

All three stock funds look strong now, with small-cap stocks (S Fund) leading the pack. Though foreign stocks (I Fund) have a lower expected return, they, together with bonds (F Fund), have a low risk. Large-cap stocks (C Fund) have the third highest expected return. (follow: facebook, rss.)

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Trying small-cap stocks agains

Alex — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 16:10:31 +0000

While still invested in bonds (F Fund), we’re getting into small-cap stocks (S Fund) again. The stocks are very risky, but their expected return is a good deal higher than that of bonds. The only other fund worth considering right now is money market (G Fund), which, as always, has a low expected return and zero risk. The characteristics of the bond fund are unchanged since last time, but small-cap stocks have certainly improved. Stay away from large-cap stocks (C Fund) and especially foreign stocks (I Fund). (follow: facebook, rss.)

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Bonds a safe haven

Alex — Mon, 05 Jul 2010 23:34:06 +0000

Bonds (F Fund) appear to be the only investment that’s doing well right now. Money market (G Fund) is another good option, that, of course, is always risk-free. Even small-cap stocks (S Fund), which we’ve been recommending recently, are flat. Definitely stay away from the other two stock funds — large-cap stocks (C Fund) and foreign stocks (I Fund), as they are in a clear downtrend.

This analysis is consistent with this week’s analysis in our Core ETF newsletter. There, we’re recommending government bonds (TLT) and corporate bonds (LQD); we’re also avoiding developed foreign markets, such as Austria (EWO). (follow: facebook, rss.)

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Small cap stocks remain attractive

Alex — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 18:47:20 +0000

With stocks bouncing off the lows on Tuesday, it’s possible that they are resuming the up move that came to a halt in April. Of the funds in the TSP, small cap stocks (S Fund), which we have been recommending for some time, remains the best fund in our opinion. Bonds (F Fund) are decent though not great; large-cap stocks (C Fund) are marginal. Avoid foreign stocks (I Fund).

This analysis is consistent with this week’s analysis in our Core ETF newsletter. There, we’re recommending real estate (IYR), and saying that investors should avoid foreign markets such as Austria (EWO), Japan (EWJ), and Korea (EWY) (follow: facebook, rss.)

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Still in small cap stocks

Alex — Mon, 31 May 2010 17:48:28 +0000

Though the stock market has been shaky for the past month, we believe that the S Fund (“Extended Market”) remains the best TSP fund at the moment. Bonds, in the form of the F Fund (“Total Bond”), are a somewhat distant second. The worst performer right now is, of course, the I Fund (“Europe Pacific”). (follow: facebook, twitter, identi.ca, rss.)

Holding on to small caps

Alex — Sun, 16 May 2010 19:15:48 +0000

Despite the recent market shakeup, the S Fund (“Extended Market”) still looks like the place to be. The C Fund (“S&P 500″), on the other hand, though it could have a decent return, is much riskier. The I Fund (“Europe Pacific”) is almost certainly in a downtrend. If you are looking for safety right now, consider the F Fund (“Total Bond”) and / or the G Fund (“Money Market”). I would stay away from Lifecycle Income in favor of either of these. (follow: facebook, twitter, identi.ca, rss.)

Small caps in the lead

Alex — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:40:43 +0000

We’re staying in the S Fund (“Extended Market”), since it appears to have the best prospects, though it is a bit overbought. Stock funds, such as the S Fund, C Fund (“S&P 500″), and L2040 (“Lifecycle 2040″), have high expected returns right now. On the other hand, though expected returns for the non-stock funds, like G Fund (“Money Market”), L2010 (“Lifecycle 2010″), and F Fund (“Total Bond”), are positive, they are on the low end of the scale. The I Fund (“Europe Pacific”) is a bit risky, but it might still bounce back. (follow: facebook, twitter, identi.ca, rss.)

Lifecycle fund equivalence

Each Lifecycle fund invests in a mixture of TSP Individual fund. The mix of Individual funds held by each Lifecycle fund changes with time. The only exception is Lifecycle Income — the mix of Individual funds that it holds is not supposed to change. As each fund’s target date approaches, the mix of funds that it holds is supposed to become more and more like the mix of funds that Lifecycle Income is holding.

Below is an estimate of the current holdings of each Lifecycle fund. Note that this is only an estimate and might not be completely accurate.

L2040: G 10 F 10 C 40 S 17 I 23
L2030: G 21 F 9 C 36 S 14 I 20
L2020: G 34 F 8 C 31 S 10 I 17
L2010: G 71 F 7 C 13 S 3 I 6
LIncome: G 74 F 6 C 12 S 3 I 5

Small cap outperforming again

Alex — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 01:56:25 +0000

We are switching back into the S Fund (“Extended Market”), which again appears to be outperforming the other TSP funds. The other funds within the TSP, such as the C Fund (“S&P 500″), which follows large US companies, are doing relatively poorly right now. (follow: facebook, twitter, identi.ca, rss.)