We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected returns while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk. In the past month, we have, once again, made a little bit of money in bonds and the money market.

I’ve written in the past two newsletters that the recent increase in stock prices is not a true rally. That conclusion, though unpopular with some, still holds. While stocks have gone up recently, they are still in a definite downtrend.

The prematurity of a bull market claim is easy to see. The so-called rally puts stocks back to where they were in January or February. All three stock funds are still down by about 40% in a single year, even with this price increase. This could be a bottom, but so far, there is no evidence that it is. Stocks made a similar attempt at a bottom in December and January, and it failed.

Related posts:

1. Bonds continuing to earn money
2. Still not time for stocks
3. Bonds strengthen, stock “rally” not proven
4. Both bonds and stocks too risky
5. Bonds shaky, stocks resume freefall

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