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November 2008

9 posts
  • Bonds are looking better on by Alex, [TSP,Thrift Savings Plan] Hatena Bookmark

    The risk of the F Fund (“Lehman Aggregate Bond Index”) has been declining recently, and has now declined enough for us to shift some money into it. We are thus now split between the G Fund (“Money Market”) and the F Fund. The stock funds are still too risky, so we are staying away from [...]

  • Market conditions unchanged on by Alex, [TSP,Thrift Savings Plan] Hatena Bookmark

    We pick the mix of Thrift Savings Plan funds that maximizes the expected returns while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk. We are continuing to stay 100% in the G Fund (“Money Market”). The characteristics of the F Fund (“Lehman Aggregate Bond”) have improved slightly, though not enough for us to move into it yet. [...]

  • Number of interfund TSP transfers adjusts to market conditions on by Alex, [TSP,Thrift Savings Plan] Hatena Bookmark

    On May 1, 2008, the federal Thrift Savings Plan introduced a rule that limits the number of interfund transfers that participants can make. All returns presented on this website, including simulated historical returns, comply with this rule. Ours is not a short-term “market timing” system. Neither is it a “buy and hold” system that ignores [...]

  • How to sell stocks but avoid the worst on by Alex, [FAQ] Hatena Bookmark

    Question: Just found your site and I am impressed. Your newsletter is recommending to be 100% in the G Fund (“Money Market”). Unfortunately, I am still invested in a mix of C, S, and I funds (the three stock funds). I want to shift to the G fund ASAP, but when my portfolio is seeing [...]

  • Market commentary on by Alex, [TSP,Thrift Savings Plan] Hatena Bookmark

    We pick the mix of Thrift Savings Plan funds that maximizes the expected returns while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk. Right now, we are continuing to stay 100% in the G Fund (“Money Market”). The risk of the F Fund (“Lehman Aggregate Bond Index”) has been declining, though it has not yet declined sufficiently [...]

  • In the long-run, stocks outperform all other investments on by Alex, [FAQ] Hatena Bookmark

    Myth: In the long-run, stocks outperform all other investments Reality: It’s true that, in the long-term, the three TSP stock funds (C, S, and I) have outperformed the two non-stock funds (G and F). So, if you had to decide on your TSP allocations just once in your life, it could be argued that the [...]

  • Should I hold on after losing a lot of money? on by Alex, [FAQ] Hatena Bookmark

    Question: I am invested in a fund that has recently lost a lot of money. I follow your Thrift Savings Plan letter, which is out of the fund. I thus believe that it is best for me not to be in the fund either. I want to get out of it. But, since the fund [...]

  • Guidance for newcomers to the newsletter on by Alex, [FAQ] Hatena Bookmark

    Question: I am a new subscriber to your newsletter. Do I have to switch my allocations to match those of the newsletter right away? Answer: All investment advice, including that in our newsletter, is based on some investment methodology. Some examples of investment methodologies are: Select the mix of funds that maximizes expected returns while [...]

  • Current market commentary on by Alex, [TSP,Thrift Savings Plan] Hatena Bookmark

    Our Balanced allocation had completely shifted out of all TSP stock funds in mid-June. Since then, the C, S, and I funds have fallen by 28%, 33%, and 38%. Our Balanced allocation also fell, but by less than 1 percent. In the current issue, we are continuing to hold 100% in the G Fund for [...]